American Odds To Implied Probability
- Implied Probability Converter
- Probability To American Odds Formula
- Money Line To Implied Probability
- American Odds To Implied Probability Sampling
All games on the menus of legal sportsbooks feature lines that give the house an edge. No sports bet works out as an even money proposition on both sides.
- Calculating Implied Probability with American Odds Implied probability refers to the likelihood of a particular outcome suggested by the odds. Figuring it out involves converting odds into a percentage, which indicates the likelihood that event will happen vs. The alternative.
- Understand the odds format by answering the question: Are the odds you want to convert Decimal, Traditional or American? Convert the odds to their probability.3. Convert the probability of your preferred odds format. For example, “Decimal Odds” of 3.00 is a 33.3% probability, which can then be converted into traditional odds of 2/1.
- Calculating implied probability is a little more complex for American odds. Let’s take the classic coin flipping example where we know the actual probability is 50%: a -110 bet on Heads.
- Format Definitions: Odds and Probabilities. There are three methods of stating odds that most bookmakers and websites support. Implied Probability is also useful when evaluating a bet or checking how likely an outcome is. Positive Figures (+): The odds state the winnings on a $100 bet. Ex: American odds of +120 would win $120 on.
Negative figures: The odds state how much must be bet to win £100 profit e.g. American odds of -120 would win £100 on a £120 bet. Implied Probability Odds correlate to probability e.g a 3/1 bet is expected to win one in every 4 attempts, hence the probability is 25%.
The house edge allows the sportsbook to make money in the long term, no matter what actually happens on the field. Some games offer odds that favor the house more than others.
The Edge Table calculates the house edge for upcoming games across the top legal online sportsbooks. The Edge Table displays which sportsbook takes the lowest edge on each game, allowing bettors to evaluate which book presents the most player-friendly odds.
Sports Betting Edge Table
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Calculating The House Edge
You can calculate the house edge on a particular game by converting the odds on both sides into implied probability. The favored team’s implied win probability percentage minus the underdog’s implied probability yields the edge built into a bet by the sportsbook.
Implied Probability Calculation For Negative American Odds
Suppose the line on an upcoming Kansas City Chiefs game looks like this:
| Team | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -323 |
| Miami Dolphins | +275 |
To calculate the implied probability of the Chiefs winning, you have to put the payout odds into the implied probability for negative American odds formula:
Implied Probability = (-1*(Odds))/(-1(Odds) + 100)
Putting the Chiefs’ (-323) moneyline odds into this equation yields the following result:
(-1*(-323))/(-1(-323)+100)
That equation solves to 323/423, which converts to 76.36% (rounded up). The (-323) odds on Kansas City converts to a 76.36% implied probability of winning.
Implied Probability Calculation For Positive American Odds
Implied Probability Converter
To calculate the Dolphins implied probability at (+275) moneyline odds, take a look at the implied probability for positive American odds formula:
Implied Probability = 100/(Odds + 100)
Putting Miami’s (+275) line into this formula yields the following:
100/(275 + 100)
That equation converts to 26.67% as the implied winning probability for the Dolphins.
Using Implied Probabilities To Determine The House Edge
Probability To American Odds Formula
Now that you’ve converted the moneyline odds on both sides of the bet into implied probabilities, you can calculate the house’s built-in edge on the Kansas City-Miami NFL game.
To accomplish this, we add both implied probabilities together and subtract (1). Before we put the implied probabilities into the equation, we convert the percentages to decimal format:
(0.7636 + 0.2667) – 1
Which converts to:
1.303 – 1 = 0.303
The house edge on the Chiefs-Dolphins game in 0.303, or 3.03%.
Check out the latest Super Bowl Odds and How To Bet On The NFL.
Use the tool below to convert odds between American, decimal, fractional and percentage formats.
Betting Odds Explained
Money Line To Implied Probability
American Odds – American Odds are the default odds format at most US friendly betting sites as well as Nevada sports books. Here odds are expressed as either a negative or a positive number. When positive the odds represent how much a player will profit on a successful $100.00 wager. So for example if the odds are +180 a successful $100 bet will return $280 (the $100 stake + $180.00 win). When the odds are negative they represent how much a bettor must stake to win $100. Therefore $150 staked at -150 returns $250.00 (the $150 stake + $100 win).
Decimal Odds – Decimal Odds, also referred to as European Odds, are used in most European countries and are the default option of many Asian bookies as well. This is the easiest odds format to understand as the odds represent how much a 1 unit wager returns. For example a €1 wager at odds 1.91 returns €1.91. This return includes both your stake plus profit; to calculate how much your return will be simply multiple your stake by the given odds.
Fractional Odds – Fractional Odds are used in the UK and Ireland. Here the first number is the amount to be won, and the second number is the stake. So for examples 4/1 is stake 1 to win 4, and 10/11 is stake 11 to win 10. To calculate how much a winning bet will profit, convert the fraction to a decimal and multiply it by the stake. For example 3/2=1.5, so, if wagering at 3/2 a successful bet will return 1.5 times your stake in winnings and will also return your stake.
American Odds To Implied Probability Sampling
Implied Probability – Implied Probability is how often a bet must win to average break even. This is calculated as risk/return, so for example +200 in American format (3.00 European) is risk $100 to win $200 so a winning wager returns $300 ($100 stake + $200 win). Therefore the implied probability of +200 is $100/$300= 0.3333, which is 33.33%. For this reason you should only wager at +200 if you think the probability of winning is greater than 33.33%.
On the topic of odds, refer to our No-Vig Calculator for a better understanding of how betting odds work.