Convert Moneyline To Percentage
- Convert Moneyline To Percentage Ratio
- Convert Moneyline To Percentage
- Convert Win Percentage To Moneyline
- Convert Moneyline To Percentage Calculator
Multiplied then by 100 to express as a implied probability percentage of 28.57%. Converting Moneyline Odds. Moneyline odds, also known as 'American odds' are probably the most foreign odds format to those of us outside of North America. And at first they appear a little confusing. The calculations for this conversion again depend on whether the moneyline odds are positive or negative. For positive moneyline odds, you create a fraction by placing the odds over 100. Then, if possible, you simplify the fraction. So, for +200, you’d create the fraction 200/100. This would be simplified to 2/1.
There are sports in which the Cinderella story is every fan’s delight. Basketball is not one of them.
Not only do fans want to see established hoops heroes collect championships, but bettors tend to pick favorites a lot more than the underdogs…especially newbie gamblers.
Many people see teams favored to prevail by a set number of points, and instantly think that the team is a lock. They focus on whether or not the favorites will cover the points, disregarding that the underdog could finish on top on the scoreboard altogether.
It should come as no surprise that as a team is favored to out-score its opponent by greater points, the higher the probability becomes that they will prevail outright. Before you look at the charts (if you haven’t already), guess which percentage among favorited teams triumph when they are favored by 3.5 points. Once you have that number, look below at our table and see if you were close. Most of the general public will completely overshoot the %.
NBA Moneyline Conversion – Implied Outright Winning % by Spread
| Favorite | ML | Winning % | Underdog | ML | Winning % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | -115 | 51.10% | 1 | -104 | 48.90% |
| -1.5 | -121 | 52.30% | 1.5 | -100 | 47.70% |
| -2 | -132 | 54.30% | 2 | +109 | 45.70% |
| -2.5 | -143 | 56.30% | 2.5 | +118 | 43.70% |
| -3 | -156 | 58.20% | 3 | +129 | 41.80% |
| -3.5 | -170 | 60.10% | 3.5 | +140 | 39.90% |
| -4 | -184 | 61.90% | 4 | +150 | 38.10% |
| -4.5 | -199 | 63.60% | 4.5 | +162 | 36.40% |
| -5 | -222 | 65.80% | 5 | +179 | 34.20% |
| -5.5 | -247 | 68.00% | 5.5 | +198 | 32.00% |
| -6 | -276 | 70.10% | 6 | +219 | 29.90% |
| -6.5 | -309 | 72.10% | 6.5 | +243 | 27.90% |
| -7 | -349 | 74.20% | 7 | +270 | 25.80% |
| -7.5 | -397 | 76.30% | 7.5 | +302 | 23.70% |
| -8 | -458 | 78.40% | 8 | +341 | 21.60% |
| -8.5 | -536 | 80.50% | 8.5 | +388 | 19.50% |
| -9 | -656 | 82.80% | 9 | +456 | 17.20% |
| -9.5 | -832 | 85.20% | 9.5 | +545 | 14.80% |
| -10 | -1069 | 87.30% | 10 | +651 | 12.70% |
If your guess was close to 60%, then you have a pretty good understanding of what it means for a side to be favored by only 3.5. Those of you who guessed a lot higher than 60%? Don’t fret. It is a very common mistake. Now, guess what percentage of 3.5 ATS favorites actually cover. Check your answer with the table below.
Actual Winning Percentage by Spread in Basketball
| Favorite | Winning % | Underdog | Winning % |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 45.40% | 1 | 52.00% |
| -1.5 | 48.10% | 1.5 | 51.90% |
| -2 | 49.50% | 2 | 46.70% |
| -2.5 | 46.90% | 2.5 | 53.10% |
| -3 | 48.50% | 3 | 47.20% |
| -3.5 | 46.50% | 3.5 | 53.50% |
| -4 | 52.80% | 4 | 45.30% |
| -4.5 | 50.40% | 4.5 | 49.60% |
| -5 | 46.00% | 5 | 49.50% |
| -5.5 | 51.30% | 5.5 | 48.70% |
| -6 | 50.60% | 6 | 45.80% |
| -6.5 | 50.80% | 6.5 | 49.20% |
| -7 | 47.20% | 7 | 48.10% |
| -7.5 | 52.30% | 7.5 | 47.70% |
| -8 | 53.10% | 8 | 43.80% |
| -8.5 | 50.80% | 8.5 | 49.20% |
| -9 | 50.20% | 9 | 46.40% |
| -9.5 | 51.40% | 9.5 | 48.60% |
| -10 | 44.70% | 10 | 52.80% |
It might not be a huge surprise that 3.5-point favorites only prevail in 60% of games played, but the fact that they don’t even cover 50% of those games should be. Most gamblers assume that when a team has been favored at 3.5-points they are likely to cover.
In reality the underdog not only covers, but prevails on a scoreboard in 40% of contests played. The cash player can be tricked into taking small favorites because of how much the line is over-valued. If I had asked what percent of 10-point favorites prevail outright, your guess would have likely been a lot closer to the actual number.
Remember, a sporting event may pit 2 teams with disparate records and publicity. But it’s still a contest between 2 opponents on the same college or professional level.
Convert Moneyline To Percentage Ratio
Always give the ‘dog a thorough evaluation. There’s often value to be had.
Implied probability is basically the conversion of odds into a percentage. That percentage then shows the likelihood of an outcome happening based on the size of the odds. High odds suggest a low probability of something happening, while low odds suggest a high probability of something happening.
For example, imagine a tennis player is +200 to win an upcoming match. This would be 3.00 in decimal odds, and 2/1 in fractional odds. The implied probability for these odds is 33.33%. In this example, the odds suggest that the player has a 33.33% chance of winning the match.
Convert Moneyline To Percentage
In sports, the probability of something happening is usually subjective. There are several factors to take into account and there’s always a chance of the unexpected. No one can state definitively the exact probability of a player or team winning a game they’re taking part in. There’s an element of personal opinion involved.
Calculating the implied probability is useful though. It helps us decide whether or not we think a bet offers any positive value. We should always look for positive value when betting, and it exists when our estimated probability of an outcome happening is greater than the implied probability that the odds on that outcome suggest.
Convert Win Percentage To Moneyline
Confused? Don’t worry! It’s not as complicated as it may seem. To make this easier to understand, let’s continue with the example of the tennis player at +200 to win his match. As we’ve said, the implied probability here is 33.33%. So if we think that the player has a GREATER than 33.33% of winning, then it makes perfect sense to bet on him. If we think his chances are less than 33.33%, it’s wise not to bet on him.
Convert Moneyline To Percentage Calculator
If you’d like a more complete explanation on this subject, there’s an article in our sports betting guide that explains value and implied probability in further detail.