Legendary coach Vince Lombardi’s philosophy was “Freedom within discipline.” While others invented complicated playbooks with dozens of formations, Lombardi’s plays were coded in simple math like “54” and “43.” His Green Bay Packers would run the same plays over and over. But athletes were allowed to think on their feet and adjust during the action to whatever the defense was doing.

Successful NFL betting must be built on a similar approach. Gamblers can each develop their own gambling style based on bankroll, budget, preference, and expertise. But to ignore time-honored maxims of NFL betting is to simply throw money away. Bettors must know and understand every type of wager before choosing the right one, and they must acquire in-depth knowledge of sportsbook strategy before deciding which tactical tenet to follow when placing the next bet.

Scroll through LegitGamblingSites.com’s NFL betting strategy guide for an overview of the types of odds, betting markets, and live wagers offered on the National Football League. We’ll provide background information and a few tips for winning more than you lose with smart bets in every category.

NFL consensus picks and public bets info is a must-have tool for any true NFL betting fan who is looking to win or cover the spread each week of the season. ActionRush.com provides NFL public betting trends on the games each night courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, FanDuel and William Hill. It will break down the basics of NFL betting, from various types of bets, to strategy, to tips on how to predict trends and think independently. If you heed this advice and weigh your options and bankroll carefully, you could turn a consistent profit throughout the 2020 NFL season. A moneyline bet is a sports betting wager on which team or person will win a game or sporting contest. When you make a moneyline wager, you are betting on who will win a contest. It doesn’t matter how they win, by how many points, goals, or runs they win, or how long it takes them to win. This DraftKings NFL strategy guide was created with DraftKings in mind, but most of the strategies work for other sites as well. In addition to DFS sites, we also have a number of online sportsbooks you can check out that offer real money sports betting just like DraftKings. Everyone has NFL betting advice and tips. What you need is a NFL betting strategy, and you need one that works for you. Heed these rules, do your research and develop your own NFL betting strategy. When learning how to bet on football, it’s important to keep it simple. Don’t bet on too many games at once and stay away from the prop bets.

Types of NFL Betting

Bookies have not dreamed up their last fancy new NFL betting market. But many types of NFL betting odds have been around for decades and aren’t going away anytime soon. Enjoy a primer on the basic categories and a few helpful links.

Moneylines in NFL Betting

Moneylines offer a bet on which team will win the game. NFL moneylines are usually expressed in fractions relating to $100. Odds of (+400) promise a payoff of $400 on a winning $100 wager, while a (-300) moneyline means the gambler must wager $300 to potentially win $100.

NFL Point Spreads

Point spreads have been the daily bread of NFL betting since the early 20th century. Betting against the spread (or “ATS”) means picking a team to prevail given points spotted to the underdog. Favorites must win by more than the spread to cash in the bet slip. A bet on the underdog wins if the team wins outright or loses by less than the spread.

NFL Point Totals

Often referred to as the Over/Under or “O/U,” a point total betting market asks the gambler to pick a cumulative point total after 4 quarters that is over or under the total predicted by the sportsbook. If the final score of the game adds up to a sum equal to the O/U line, the wager is a push, and money is returned with no further action.

Proposition Wagers in NFL Betting

Proposition, or “prop” bets on the NFL involve specific statistical feats or other events that could occur during a game.

Props on regular-season NFL games are usually basic and sports-oriented, such as whether a star running back will gain 100 or more yards in 4 quarters.

Thousands of prop bets are offered by casinos on the Super Bowl, however, and bookies tend to use their imaginations when coming up with prop markets for the Greatest Show on Earth. Super Bowl props can be anything from the number of pass attempts by Aaron Rodgers to the type of outfit worn by a pop singer in the halftime show.

NFL Parlays

A parlay, or “combo” bet, is a single wager that combines 2 or more individual bets. Parlays offer a much higher payoff than typical spread or O/U markets, but all bets in a parlay must have a winning result for the gamble to pay off. If any picks involved in the parlay lose, the bettor loses the entire wager.

NFL Futures Bets

Guide to NFL Handicapping

Successful NFL betting depends on good handicapping. But what is handicapping, exactly?

Handicapping is not the same as making a prediction. No one can accurately predict final scores over the long term. Instead, handicapping is a process of assigning value to a team going into a contest.

If the bettor concludes that a team’s chances of prevailing in a given contest are better than what the moneyline or point spread is factoring in, then a bet on that team carries value. It is more likely to win than to lose. If the team’s chances of winning the game (or winning against a point spread) appear worse than the sportsbook’s odds are allowing, then betting value is with the opposing team.

Click below for a more in-depth look at NFL handicapping.

Other Key Aspects of NFL Handicapping

The game itself may come down to blocking and tackling, but NFL betting strategy is anything but simple. Key factors include line movement, trends, distinguishing playoff handicapping from regular-season analysis, and of course Super Bowl handicapping.

NFL Betting: Line Movement Analysis

Line movement analysis is the technique of understanding why a moneyline, point spread, or point total has moved from the original lines set by the sportsbook.

A moneyline or a point spread will be adjusted if casinos notice heavy betting action focused on one of the two teams squaring off. Sportsbooks prefer balanced action that assures the house of a profit. However, it is important to determine whether lines are moving due to public bias or actual handicapping factors. An injury to a quarterback should cause a line to move in a logical direction, while a rush of bets on the Dallas Cowboys may cause odds to change for no other reason than the popularity of America’s Team.

Angles and Trends in NFL Betting

Analyzing trends is a standard tool of the oddsmaker. For instance, an NFL team might be traveling to play an opponent with a much better record, but historical trends indicate that the former team always plays well at the venue they’re visiting. That would cause the game’s moneyline to be set much tighter than it would normally be.

Angles and trends can be deceiving, however. Stats such as “The Eagles are 5-1 in games played in snow in the Central Time Zone” seem valuable but are ultimately meaningless due to the effects of random chance on a small sample-size of outcomes.

Handicapping the NFL Playoffs vs. the Regular Season

Understanding the differences in handicapping the playoffs vs. the regular season is an important step toward having a winning record in your NFL betting hobby.

For instance, players who suffer mild injuries may ride the bench out of caution in Week 7 or Week 10. But a key performer who is nursing a painful but not prohibitive injury will likely be pressed into duty in a postseason contest.

Handicapping the Super Bowl

If handicapped carefully by the NFL betting enthusiast, the Super Bowl can be a profitable gambling opportunity. Millions of people place wagers on the Super Bowl, and the method of “betting against the public” is never more relevant than in February.

Check out the links below for a more detailed look into NFL betting and handicapping.

Preseason, In-Game, and Halftime Betting

NFL betting on summer preseason games is a vastly different animal than in the autumn and winter. Futures bets may be placed on teams still in training camp, but it’s moneyline and point spread betting in which the difference is stark.

Gambling on an NFL team in the preseason can be infuriating due to star players sitting out, coaches calling “test” plays instead of trying to score, and rookie punters and kickers shanking the football wide of the uprights or out of bounds. However, the preseason can also be a solid betting opportunity for the sports gambler whose knowledge of training camp rosters exceeds his peers.

In-game betting is also known as “live” or “in-play” betting. Many sportsbooks offer NFL betting lines that are adjusted during a Sunday contest. If an underdog scores the first 2 touchdowns of the game, the moneyline which was originally set with their opponent as the strong favorite will likely be “flipped” with the former underdog now the favorite.

Halftime betting gives the bookie and bettor each an opportunity to reconsider the contest for a few minutes before moving forward. A sportsbook may choose to close live betting temporarily while new lines are set with the likely 2nd-half outcome in mind. But the most important halftime adjustments are made in NFL locker rooms.

Take a look at the pages below for more.

Forecasting Lines and Score Prediction

Sportsbooks won’t set odds on an upcoming NFL game until both teams have no in-between contests on their schedule. But the savvy sports bettor doesn’t let a measly Patriots vs. Jets laugher get in the way of handicapping a solid wager. Gamblers can forecast lines by making educated guesses as to what the moneyline and point spread numbers will be when markets open on Monday afternoon.

Long-term weather forecasts can tighten a moneyline and lower the O/U total. When heavy rain or snow is expected to make handling the football, running routes, and even blocking more difficult, expect bookies and professional handicappers to predict a low-scoring game.

Surf to the link below to read more about how forecasting lines and score prediction can help NFL betting enthusiasts beat the sportsbook.

Turnover Chart and Analysis

Turnover charts help handicappers and bettors analyze which NFL franchises, coaching staffs, and rosters are best at protecting the football and forcing opponents to turn it over.

Over time, a plus-turnover ratio will result in excellent season records and playoff wins. The New England Patriots have a sparkling long-term turnover chart – we rest our case!

Click below for a deeper look into using turnover charts to help produce more NFL betting wins.

Conclusion

We’ve only scratched the surface of all of the factors weighed into serious NFL handicapping. It’s a complicated study for even the dedicated and knowledgeable pro football fan.

But remember, sportsbooks don’t have the resources or time to investigate 2-deep roster, statistical trends, and matchups as closely as a determined bettor with a laptop.

Focus on one game at a time and beat the casino’s house bookie with in-depth analysis, common sense…and an understanding of handicapping.

See All Guides

Betting on the NFL isn’t necessarily easy, but making smarter bets is always possible for those motivated to learn a bit of new strategy.

Try these nine thoughtful tips when wagering at online football betting sites and watch your bankroll grow.

1. Bet With Your Head, Not Your Heart

It may sound obvious, but avoiding emotion when wagering remains a challenge for many bettors. We all have our personal biases. Whether it’s a favorite team or one we despise, putting aside these preferences isn’t easy.

But here’s the thing: becoming more objective towards NFL betting online is literally the easiest way to make smarter bets. It doesn’t require a detailed strategy on mathematical analysis, it just requires common sense.

Cheering on your favorite team (at least) 16 times per year is a lot of fun, but losing money in the process is not. To become a smarter bettor, be aware of your biases and try to avoid decisions based solely on favoritism.

2. Pay Attention to Where the Game Is Played

Home-field advantage matters, and it matters more at certain stadiums. For example, the New England Patriots, went 42-6 straight-up (32-14-2 ATS) at home from 2014-2018. The Seahawks also perform exceptionally well in Seattle: they are 92-31 at home since 2003.

But they’re not the only two teams with such an advantage. Do your research by comparing each team’s home vs. away record when handicapping for home team advantage.

West Coast teams traveling to the Eastern Time Zone tend to have less difficulty overcoming the time change, but East Coast teams are at an inherent disadvantage when forced to play on the Pacific Coast, three hours later than they’re used to.

There are also teams who don’t travel well. From 2014-2018 (a five-season span), the San Francisco 49ers were a terrible 9-31 on the road, third-worst in the league. They weren’t much better against the spread, going 16-22-2 (fourth-worst in the NFL). The Texans also struggled to cover the spread on the road in 2016, posting a 2-6 record ATS.

Nfl Moneyline Betting Strategy Calculator

Knowing where and when the teams played the previous week is also an important factor to consider. Some teams suffer from real disadvantages. West Coast teams traveling to the Eastern Time Zone tend to have less difficulty overcoming the time change, but East Coast teams are at an inherent disadvantage when forced to play on the Pacific Coast, three hours later than they’re used to.

Lastly, certain dome (indoor) teams can struggle to perform outdoors. For example, Drew Brees’ passer rating drops from 102.5 in a dome to 90.3 when playing outdoors. And this is all extremely useful information for bettors.

3. Know the Individual Matchups

Football is often referred to as the ultimate team sport, but there are certain one-on-one matchups that can dramatically affect the outcome of a game.

For example, a weak offensive tackle should not be expected to perform well against the premier edge-rushers in the league. Pay attention to major skill discrepancies between players who will be going head-to-head.

Coaches are perhaps the most significant head-to-head matchups that bettors should consider. Every coach uses recurring strategies that fare very well against some opponents and flop against others. Coaches get to know each other’s approaches to the game, and some are better at responding to these strategic considerations.

A great example of this is Tom Coughlin and Bill Belichick. The Patriots have been dominant since Belichick has been steering the ship, but he was 2-5 when coaching against Coughlin following the 2018 season.

4. Know More than Just the Trends

Nfl Moneyline Betting Strategy 2019

When it comes to betting on NFL games, following the trends isn’t a bad idea — patterns sometimes provide valuable information. For example, from 2010 to 2018, the Bears went 12-5 ATS when coming off a bye week, while the 49ers, on the other hand, were just 5-11 ATS in that same time frame.

The sharpest bettors always look at the context behind the numbers when evaluating statistical trends.

Noticing that a team just scored 49 points the previous week doesn’t necessarily mean that their offense is firing on all cylinders. Go back and look at how all the points were scored. Maybe a defensive back fell down to allow a long touchdown pass. Perhaps the defense scored a couple of those touchdowns. Maybe they were just playing the Browns.

The sharpest bettors always look at the context behind the numbers.

5. Check the Injury Reports

As we mentioned, football is the ultimate team game, and small changes can throw off the entire unit. Make sure you know which players have missed practice during the week, what their status is for the upcoming game, and what role they play on the team.

Team injury reports can be a little vague, so it’s always a good idea to check the Twitter accounts of beat-writers for each team. Often, they will provide a little more detail.

6. Take Caution with Divisional Matchups

Teams that play each other twice per season get to know each other very well, and even bad teams tend to dig a little deeper when they are battling a division rival.

Looking to 2016, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Chicago Bears, and San Francisco 49ers were three of the bottom-four teams in the NFL, but they all posted a 4-2 record ATS within their respective divisions.

Even though one team may appear superior on paper, divisional matchups are often much closer than anticipated. This makes the great choices to bet on the NFL point spread, but they can be risky choices on the moneyline.

7. Don’t Fall in Love with Value

Betting the underdog on the moneyline can certainly pay off, but you need to consider why long odds are so long in the first place. Make sure you have very specific reasons and logic behind taking a +800 underdog on the moneyline, because you can be sure the sportsbook used reason and logic to set that moneyline in the first place.

We strongly recommend limiting parlays and teasers to 2-5 events when betting on the NFL.

You also need to be careful when constructing parlays and teasers. Don’t load them up with too many events. NFL teams are generally closely-matched compared to other sports, and it’s far too difficult to correctly predict the outcome of more than a handful of games. We strongly recommend limiting parlays and teasers to 2-5 events.

8. Monitor the Lines Throughout the Week

Monitoring the betting lines throughout the week is a big part of maximizing your chances. Some online books may provide more favorable NFL odds, and as the week progresses, you may find the odds change.

Betting Moneyline Nfl

It’s important to keep in mind the influence of public perception here. Popular teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, and New England Patriots will always have loyal supporters betting with their hearts. They’re often referred to as public teams, and it’s very likely they’ll be more heavily favored than the statistics suggest they should be.

If you’re planning on betting against the public, wait around and let emotional bettors drive the odds in your favor. Conversely, if you’re planning to bet on a public team, jumping on an early line is likely the best decision.

How To Bet Nfl Moneyline

9. Diversify Your NFL Bets

There is success to be had betting on the moneyline, the spread, and game totals. But to maximize your success, it’s crucial to know all the alternative bets you can make.

Many sportsbooks will allow you to bet on alternate spreads or buy and sell points. Instead of settling for a -3.5 spread that makes you a little uncomfortable, you can opt for a -2.5 spread with a more modest payout.

Enjoy the Action this NFL Season

Nfl Moneyline Betting Strategy 2020

The strategies above are great to keep in mind while wagering this football season, but they’re only a start. In the end, finding success is all about putting in the time and effort to research your pick and manage your bankroll effectively.

If you’re looking to for more football action than the NFL can provide, open up your Saturdays and take a look at our intro to betting on college football for more helpful tips and tricks.